In previous posts I’ve explored the relation between violent crime and incarceration rates in the US, which got me wondering: how much do incarceration rates reflect violent crime rates in other countries? Hence, this exploration - and I stress ‘exploration’, because good data is hard to come by and cross-country comparisons can be misleading. For example, countries may not define criminal offenses the same way or have different levels of unreported crime. But iffy data can still reveal real patterns, provided the numbers aren’t not too far off. With that hope in mind, I decided to check out the data and see what patterns I could find.
First, crime rates for serious assault and robbery (often the two most common violent crimes in countries, not counting simple assault, which is less likely to result in a prison sentence):
Now, incarceration rates/divided by the crime rates for serious assault and robbery:
Hmmm. America does stand out in this comparison. Not only does that US have a high incarceration rate relative to its population; it appears to have a high incarceration rate relative to violent crime, at least compared to Canada, France, Germany and Australia.
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* Per the US Department of Justice, percent of state prisoners by most serious offense; Violent 58.2%, Property 15.3%, Drug 14.0%, Public Order 11.9%, and other/Unspecified 0.6%. Public order offenses include weapons, DUI/DWI, probation/parole violations, commercialized vice, and other (2019).