Decarbonization is just a fancy name for reducing carbon emissions, mainly carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The news on that front doesn’t look so good:
Ok, so global CO2 emissions continue to rise, except for a pandemic-induced dip in 2020. But look closely at the above chart and you’ll see definite signs of progress, especially since 2010. For one, CO2 emissions are increasing more slowly than global population and GDP per capita. Two, energy intensity - a measure of energy inefficiency - has been declining steadily for over 30 years. And, three, a global decline in carbon intensity is accelerating by two measures. These are:
C02 emissions per dollar, which is calculated by dividing a country or region’s annual CO2 emissions by its total annual gross domestic product (GDP).
CO2 emissions per unit of energy, which is calculated by dividing the total annual emissions of a country or region by its primary energy consumption.
Put simply, declining carbon intensity means the carbon footprint of economic growth and energy consumption is getting smaller. That’s a good thing.
And it’s a good thing that’s getting better over time. Check it out:
The bad news is that we’re not making near enough progress to keep within the 1.5° C target this century. Given our current trajectory, the planet is looking at a temperature rise of around 2.4° C by 2100, per the following:
Next: Prepping for a 2.4° C world.