I’ve often seen “perception” contrasted with “reality” as if they were mutually exclusive: perception versus reality. But perceptions don’t erupt out of nothing. They have some foundation in the real world. In the case of perceived public safety, that foundation includes exposure to criminal or threatening behavior, directly experienced or witnessed and indirectly through word of mouth, media reports or government statistics (although I don’t expect many Americans check the FBI’s numbers all that often, unless they’re trying to score political points by “proving” crime is up or down).
Social and news media are important perception-feeders for guessing national crime trends. But when it comes to perceived public safety closer to home, personal and shared experiences matters a lot. How much of a factor? It’s hard to say - there’s not much research on the question. Of course some studies and surveys have looked at the impact of being a crime victim on perceptions of public safety, but that approach is too narrow. Witnessing crimes and knowing crime victims can also sensitize people to danger in public spaces.
So if I were to design a study to get a better handle on how much personal experience and knowledge influence perceptions of public safety, I’d include some questionnaires, roughly like the following:
I’d also ask questions about exposure to unwanted or menacing behaviors in public areas, like so:
In retrospect the questionnaires should also reflect whether these events happened where respondents currently live, as fear acquired elsewhere may fade if not reinforced by more recent experience.