Note: This post is the first of a long series, prepared in advance of leaving town on a three-week vacation.
—
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), known as the 2017 Trump Tax Cuts, was a pro-growth reform that overhauled the federal tax code. Some of the key changes introduced by the TCJA included reducing corporate and individual tax rates, increasing the standard deduction, doubling the maximum Child Tax Credit, and introducing a 20% deduction for Qualified Business Income for eligible pass-through businesses.
The TCJA was intended to stimulate economic growth. It’s hard to say whether it did. As explained by William McBride at the Tax Foundation:
“…there are a multitude of other factors in play that are difficult to disentangle from the effects of TCJA, including intervening developments since TCJA such as higher tariffs and a growing trade war, a pandemic and massive fiscal packages in response, high inflation and efforts by the Federal Reserve to combat it with high interest rates, wars in Europe and the Middle East, a surge in immigration, and other major tax legislation including the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).” - Another Huge Federal Deficit in Fiscal Year 2024 Despite Surging Corporate and Other Tax Collections, October 10, 2024
Before all these intervening factors muddled the causal picture, many (especially partisans) offered confident opinions on the impact of TCJA. For instance,
“The 2-year-old tax law pushed by President Donald Trump and his congressional allies has helped the wealthy enrich themselves and left out working people. Known as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), the law has benefited corporations and the wealthy while doing little or nothing for working families…” - Trump’s Alleged Tax Cut for the Middle Class Has Been Anything But - American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, January 06, 2020
Trump’s 2017 tax cuts actually benefited all income groups in the US:
Chart data in The 2025 Tax Debate: Who Benefits from Tax Cuts? By Fredrick Hernandez , Andrew Lautz Apr 07, 2025. https://bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/the-2025-tax-debate-who-benefits-from-tax-cuts/
But did Americans feel better off after the tax cuts? It appears so, at least judging by the rise in consumer confidence during that period:
Accessed on 5/26/25 https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence
However, consumer confidence had been going up well before the tax cuts and other TCJA provisions went into effect, so, again, it’s hard to assign causality.
It’s probably safe to say that Trump’s 2017 tax cuts did increase the federal debt. How much? AI Overview says somewhere between $1 to $2 trillion through 2025, though I’m sure some economists disagree.