The inspiration for this post was reading:
Property crime fell from the early-1990s onwards because of security improvements, particularly to vehicles and households. As fewer young people became involved in property crime, fewer progressed to violence (which is fortunately rarer), and fewer crimes were committed in which violence also occurs, such as robbery and aggravated burglary. - Professor Graham Farrell, School of Law/University of Leeds. (Letter to The Economist, June 7, 2025 issue)
Which led me to ask AI Overview, “Do violent criminals have history of property crime?” The response:
Yes, individuals who commit violent crimes often have a history of prior property crimes. Studies and data analysis show a strong correlation between property crime and later involvement in violent offenses. This suggests that a pattern of property crime can be a precursor or a risk factor for engaging in violence…Some individuals may begin with property crimes and then escalate to more serious offenses, including violent crimes, as they become more entrenched in criminal behavior.
So if you want to reduce violent crime, reduce opportunities to commit property crimes. This is called “situational crime prevention”. AI Overview explains:
Situational crime prevention focuses on reducing opportunities for specific crimes by making them more difficult and risky to commit. It shifts the focus from why crime happens to how it happens, aiming to modify the environment where crime occurs. This approach relies on identifying "opportunity structures" that facilitate crime and then implementing changes to disrupt those opportunities.
Key Concepts:
Opportunity-based: Situational crime prevention is based on the idea that crime is often opportunistic, meaning it relies on a situation where the risks are low and the rewards are high.
Specific crimes: It targets specific types of crimes, such as theft, vandalism, or drug dealing, rather than general crime prevention.
Environmental modification: The core of the approach is to alter the physical and social environment to make crime more difficult and less appealing.
Risk and reward: Situational crime prevention aims to increase the perceived risks and difficulties of committing a crime while decreasing the potential rewards.
Target hardening: Making it more difficult to access or damage a target, like installing stronger locks or using reinforced materials.
Designing out: Modifying the environment to make it less conducive to crime in the first place, like improving street lighting or designing buildings with fewer hidden areas.
Examples
CCTV surveillance: Installing cameras in high-crime areas to deter potential offenders and provide evidence.
Improved street lighting: Making it more difficult for criminals to operate under the cover of darkness.
Target hardening: Using reinforced locks, alarms, and security systems to protect property.
Reducing opportunities for theft: Using security tags on merchandise, providing clear lines of sight in stores, and implementing "shoplifting is stealing" campaigns.
Controlling access: Using fences, gates, and security personnel to restrict access to certain areas or buildings
Here are some of the AI Overview links:
Arrest History and Intimate Partner Violence Perpetration in a Sample of Men and Women Arrested for Domestic Violence. Shorey et al/International Journal of Criminology and Sociology. 2012
Crime is the Problem: Homicide, Acquisitive Crime, and Economic Conditions. Rosenfeld, R. Journal of Quantitative Criminology. 2009
Federal Robbery: Prevalence, Trends, and Factors in Sentencing/United States Sentencing Commission. August 18, 2022
Property Crime/Criminology Review
Twenty-five Techniques of Situational / Center for Problem-Oriented Policing
What is situational crime prevention?/College of Policing. January 2022