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Politics and Economics
Mikhail Gorbachev died on the 30th of August this year. I always admired the man, who somehow managed to break the chains of fear and ideology under a system “penetrated by the spirit of bootlicking, persecution of dissidents, clannishness, [and] window-dressing.” As a homage to Mr. Gorbachev, here’s a post he inspired a couple years ago…
Post-tax corporate profits reached 12.1% of GDP in the second quarter of 2022, their highest since at least the 1940s…Why are companies doing so well? And is it a problem?
These barriers to development are “individually justifiable, yet collectively intolerable”, as is often the case with systemic barriers to progress. Yet because they are individually justifiable, they are individually resistant to reform. There will always be anti-development groups willing to fight tooth-and-nail for their cause, which is often a good cause.
Now contrast the California prison per inmate cost for security ($44,918) with the per inmate cost for education and training - just $2230, or less than $200 per month). No wonder California’s recidivism rate is so high. Unfortunately, the situation is just as bad in the rest of the country. To quote…
“Policy is pointless without power…Putting the wishes of wonks before the desires of voters is the quickest way to ensure defeat. It might not be sensible. But trying to be sensible is sometimes politically rather silly.” - Bagehot/The Economist,
To simplify a bit, budget deficits turn into government debt. Then the question becomes whether a country can afford to service its debt at a level that does not exceed economic growth. If the answer is yes, and the country in question is achieving its policy goals, then I’d say it has a pretty good tax system. If the answer is no, then it doesn’t.
The Range: Ninety-eight percent of the Progressive Left considered inequality to be a very big or moderately big problem, compared with 25% of Faith and Flag Conservatives . Additionally, 75% of Faith and Flag Conservatives saw inequality as a small problem or no problem at all, compared with 2% of the Progressive Left.
Pew Research interviewed thousands of Americans in 2021 and assigned each to a political group based on their responses to questions about social and political values. So how can one tell if the individuals in any of these groups are subject to groupthink? One way is to look at the level of consensus within a political group - especially on policy-related questions.
The range: Ninety-five percent of the Faith and Flag Conservatives and Democratic Mainstays considered violent crime to be a very big or moderately big problem, compared with 76% of the Progressive Left. Additionally, 25% of the Progressive Left saw violent crime as a small problem or no problem at all, compared with 5% of Democratic Mainstays and the Populist Right.
The range: Eighteen percent of Faith and Flag Conservatives considered climate change to be a very big or moderately big problem, compared with 98% of the Progressive Left. Additionally, just 1% of the Progressive Left saw climate change as a small problem or no problem at all, compared with 82% of Faith and Flag Conservatives.
The Range: Ninety-eight percent of the Progressive Left considered racism to be a very big or moderately big problem, compared with 24% of Faith and Flag Conservatives. Additionally, 75% of Faith and Flag Conservatives saw racism as a small problem or no problem at all, compared with 2% of the Progressive Left.
The range: Ninety-seven percent of Faith and Flag Conservatives and the Populist Right considered illegal immigration to be a very big or moderately big problem, compared with 26% of the Progressive Left. Additionally, 74% of the Progressive Left saw illegal immigration as a small problem or no problem at all, compared with 3% of Faith and Flag Conservatives and the Populist Right.
The range: Ninety-seven percent of Faith and Flag Conservatives considered the federal budget deficit to be a very big or moderately big problem, compared with 59% of the Progressive Left. Additionally, 40% of the Progressive Left saw the deficit as a small problem or no problem at all, compared with 3% of Faith and Flag Conservatives.
As described in Beyond Red vs. Blue: The Political Typology, these groups are: Faith and Flag Conservatives (10% of public); Committed Conservatives (7% of public) Populist Right (11% of public); Ambivalent Right (12% of public); Stressed Sideliners (15% of public); Outsider Left (10% of public); Democratic Mainstays (15% of public); Establishment Liberals (13% of public); and, Progressive Left (6% of public). Here are descriptions of each group and the survey questions Pew used to arrive at its typology.
These statements about company culture or core values reminded me of a post on patriotism that I did a few years ago. Not patriotism as easily mocked, condemned or dismissed - but patriotism as understood by people who embrace patriotic sentiments without apology or irony. Here are some excerpts:
…So basically a downward trend since the early, optimistic days of the war in Afghanistan, when 80% of respondents said they trusted the federal government’s handling of international problems. What about trust in the federal government’s handling of domestic problems?
“The President will announce today that the EPA Administrator is planning to allow E15 gasoline—gasoline that uses a 15 percent ethanol blend—to be sold this summer. This is the latest step in expanding Americans’ access to affordable fuel supply and bringing relief to Americans suffering from Putin’s Price Hike at the pump.” Fact Sheet: Using Homegrown Biofuels to Address Putin’s Price Hike at the Pump and Lower Costs for American Families. White House Press Release, April 12, 2022
So we’ve got high crime, lots of police department staff, and low crime clearance rates. First thought: what’s wrong with the cops in San Francisco? Maybe nothing. Let me explain, starting with some relevant context…
Since would-be burglars typically prefer unoccupied buildings, San Francisco’s steep rise in burglaries in 2020 is not all that surprising. And the large rise in auto thefts can be at least partly explained by supply issues, which increased the market for stolen cars. Larceny and robbery are still down from the pre-pandemic baseline, which makes sense since these crimes are often committed in commercial establishments, parking lots, garages, parks, fields, and areas near public transportation - in other words, the type of places that have closed in great numbers or become sparsely peopled since the pandemic began, thanks to remote work, the decline of tourism, and widespread avoidance of public spaces.
Crime rates based on residential population are a poor indicator of victimization risk in cities that attract a large daily population from outside the city limits. In these cities, the population at risk of crime includes tourists and inbound commuters to work. Tourists and commuters are typically victims of crimes committed by strangers, such as robbery or car theft, while residents are more likely to be victims of crimes committed by family and friends, such as homicide, rape and aggravated assault.