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Politics and Economics

Consumer Sentiment and Inflation since 1984: What's the Connection (Two Charts and a few Comments)

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) is regarded as one of the leading indicators of consumer confidence in the United States. The CSI survey asks consumers about their own personal finances, as well as their views on the state of the US economy. As measured by the CSI, consumer confidence typically drops right before recessionary periods, whereas rising consumer confidence predicts increased consumer spending and economic growth. This pattern is clear in the following chart...

Killing Agency with Fear

“Sense of agency refers to the feeling of control over actions and their consequences.” - James W Moore, What Is the Sense of Agency and Why Does it Matter?

Department of Unintended Consequences: From Taxing the Rich to Healthcare Spending

Kamala Harris has pledged to increase taxes on the wealthy should she be elected president. Per the Kiplinger Newsletter, she would bring back the top 39.6% income tax rate for people making $400,000 or more, as well as hike the 3.8% net investment income surtax to 5% for these taxpayers. She also plans to increase the long-term capital gains tax rate for the wealthy.

Should Kamala Harris’s election and tax plans come to fruition, US physicians would take a major tax hit. Why? Because they’re rich.

People, Parties, Process, Principles, and Power

Power makes it easier to get what you want. Power gets you even more of what you want. Power gets you things you didn’t know you wanted. Power opens up a world of expanding possibility.

Fixing the US National Debt by Changing the Tax System

Unfortunately, many proposed fixes to the US national debt problem focus on raising income and capital gains taxes on the very affluent and rich. Politically and emotionally satisfying, perhaps, but the revenue proceeds are bound to disappoint. Besides the distortive and unpredictable effects of such taxes, there simply are not enough high-income taxpayers to fill tax coffers to the required level.

How Serious is the US National Debt?

At $35 trillion and rising, the national debt seems to threaten America’s economic future…But how serious is the US national debt, really? That is, does it pose a major risk to the nation’s economic growth and undermine our ability to maintain essential government programs? And will these problems be difficult to fix given US politics and the scale of the mess?

What Binary Thinking Looks Like

Yes, my example is old. But I still encounter that binary mindset just about every day: variations on we’re smart, they’re dumb; we’re good; they’re bad; we see the truth, they’re deluded.

Crime and Punishment in Five States: Four Blue and One Purple

The FBI’s crime rates are based on arrests, whereas people in these states’ Criminal Legal System have been convicted of crimes. What I’d like to see is how much arrest rates diverge from conviction rates, and why they diverge, e.g., plea deals, diversion programs, prosecutorial discretion/approach to criminal justice, overzealous police over-arresting without sufficient evidence, etc. I imagine the prevalence of these various factors vary according to state, jurisdiction and local politics.

A Portrait of the Supreme Court: What's Wrong with This Picture?

“Anita Kunz’s cover for the July 22, 2024, issue focuses on what appears to many to be an existential threat to democracy: the far-right shift of the Supreme Court, and the conservative movement’s plans to commandeer it” - Anita Kunz’s “The Face of Justice”: The remaking of the Supreme Court in Donald Trump’s image. By Françoise Mouly/The New Yorker July 15, 2024.

What Polls on Patriotism Say

As for the other countries, I detect themes of historic struggle followed by triumph, of creating something grand out of initially slim pickins; in other words, a feeling of having overcome adversity. Maybe that feeling is essential to pride in general, whether personal or national.

What Patriotism Means to Patriotic People, Part I: Introduction

This series of posts will focus on what patriotism means to people who consider themselves patriotic. For example, what beliefs, perceptions, principles, values, ideals, actions and emotions come to mind when they feel the swell of patriotism or explain why they consider themselves patriotic.  I will not be defining patriotism, but will approach this project in the spirit of a descriptive dictionary, which…

Another Day, Another Misleading Poll

Per Merriam-Webster Dictionary, to support is to favor actively. However, the qualifier “somewhat” is a hedge, reflecting mixed feelings or reservations. To “somewhat support” means to partly support - it definitely does not mean wholehearted endorsement. The above headlines mislead because they imply that most poll respondents wholeheartedly endorsed the President’s Plan. They did not - and how could they? Only 23% of survey respondents indicated they have seen, read, or heard “a lot” about the Plan, of which some unknown subset supported it (with or without reservations).

The Latest on the Federal Debt

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) just released its latest report projecting what the federal budget and the economy would look like over the next 10 years if laws governing taxes and spending generally remained unchanged. Per the CBO, relative to the size of the economy, the federal debt swells from 2024 to 2034 as increases in interest costs and mandatory spending outpace decreases in discretionary spending and growth in revenues… Here’s the chart:

Are Political Beliefs a Byproduct of Political Alliances, Part IV: Biases that Keep the Whole Thing Going

I’m going to assume that just about all political allies have been portrayed as perpetrators of wrongdoing and/or victims of injustice, no matter their ideological leanings. This would include LGBTQ+ groups, labor unions, environmentalists, Blacks, Whites, poor people, young people, Hispanics, student activists, old people, business people, farmers, rural folk, pro-life groups, pro-choice groups, evangelicals, mainstream Protestants, Catholics, moderates, Asian Americans, men, women, and plenty of others.