Climate Change and Possible Futures - Part IV

In terms of predicting climate change and its effects, it’s essential to get population projections right.  And in terms of climate change mitigation, the fewer humans the better. Per O’Neill et al, every 1% decrease in global population would mean a 1% decrease in emissions.

Science and Its Discontents

One thing I love about the scientific mindset is its humility. Scientific proposals about the nature of reality are tentative, provisional, and mindful of their limitations. That very humility feeds the wonderful feeling of awe and adventure that accompanies the scientific quest to understand something better.

Supporting the Basic Income Guarantee While Acknowledging It Could Lead to a World of Pain

I’ve written a lot about the Basic Income Guarantee, aka BIG, which is a proposal that all adults get some non-means-tested check from the federal government every month. Arguments for the BIG come from both the left and the right. Progressives consider it a compassionate way to eliminate poverty. Libertarians see it as an efficient way to provide a safety net.

Climate Change and Possible Futures - Part II

Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) represent possible trajectories of atmospheric concentrations of green house gases (GHGs) over the next century.  The RCPs are named after their targeted heating effects. For instance, RCP8.5 represents a trajectory that could result in atmospheric heating of 8.5 watts per meter squared by 2100. RCP8.5 is the most extreme of the four RCPs considered by the IPCC.  It projects a mean temperature rise of 3.7°C and a likely increase range of 2.6 to 4.8°C by 2100, wreaking all sorts of havoc along the way.

Climate Change and Possible Futures - Part I

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has laid out a range of scenarios for what might happen to the planet, atmosphere, biosphere, and human society over the course of the next century. These scenarios are based on different “Representative Concentration Pathways” (RCPs), each with its own story line about population growth, economic activity, land use patterns, energy use, lifestyle, climate policy, and mitigation efforts. 

Strongly-felt Thoughts Trying to Make an Impression on an Imaginary Audience

Some may say the prosody of thoughts simply reflects their emotionality: words flowing on a sea of feeling.  But when we engage in imaginary conversations, are the feelings heard in the words independent from the communicative intention, which is to have an effect on an imagined audience? Emotional expression is calibrated in the real world – why not in the world inside our heads?

Emotions, Toxicity, and the New Victorians

Thoughts that amplify bad feelings aren’t necessarily dysfunctional – they may serve a useful purpose. Some unpleasant thoughts lead to breakthroughs; others become repetitive and reap diminishing returns.

The Meaning of Conservative

The main dictionary definition of "conservative" is "holding to traditional attitudes and values and cautious about change or innovation, typically in relation to politics or religion."  In European and Latin American history, "conservative" usually referred to supporters of the Church (and sometimes landed gentry), which was opposed to business interests. A strong strain of paternalism runs through the history of the European/Latin brand of conservatives. Pro-business advocates were (and still are) called "liberals" in Europe ...

 

Robots and Office Jobs

Per the Bureau of Labor Statistics News Release (March 30, 2016), the total number employed in the US for All Occupations was 137,896,660. ...administrative support jobs are by far the biggest occupational group. And yet for decades, prognosticators have been saying the computer will make office work near obsolete. So why are there more office jobs than ever?

Expectations and Assessments in Research

...If one condition was more effortful and less fun than the other, would the groups differ in any systematic way in their expectations of cognitive change or in how they approach the post-training assessment tests?

Hope and Climate Change, Part II

Sometimes when I sound a note of hope about climate change, others seem irritated or even angry. As if hope negates strong measures, and unless we take strong measures, the situation is truly hopeless.  As if hope engenders complacency. But hope can spur action, especially hope tempered by a sense of urgency and an understanding that sacrifice is also part of the equation.

Hope and Climate Change, Part I

My last post ended on a note of optimism: continued economic growth, cultural change and technological development can go a long way in ameliorating climate change, and the effects thereof. In short: with economic development, empowerment of women, intensification of sustainable agriculture, and urbanization, human populations plummet and wild habitat expands. ...

Enlightened Animals

Humans are animals. Questions to ponder:  What does it mean for an animal to become enlightened? Is it possible to become enlightened incrementally (like gaining expertise)? Is enlightenment on a continuum with regular human capacities, or does it represent a qualitative shift? Or is the approach to enlightenment incremental but then actual achievement is a qualitative shift (kinda like expertise too)?  Can one be enlightened and then fall out of it? Why? Why not?

What are we saying when we say something? Homeostatic Range or Homeostatic Balance

In “Self Comes to Mind”, Antonio Damasio writes of the homeostatic range associated with the well-being of living creatures. Venture too close to the periphery of this range and you get pain. Inhabit the middle and you get pleasure. ... Now compare the concept of the homeostatic range to the idea of homeostatic balance. Homeostatic balance is a perfectly respectable concept meaning a condition of equilibrium. But my interest is in the “use value” of the word ‘balance’: what it is meant to evoke and accomplish...

Observing, Accepting, and Making Meaning

When you yield to a thought, you stay with it as it expands and meanders. You haven’t prejudged whether it will lead of anything of value. It may lead to a tangle of thorny bushes or to a treasure trove....

Demographics, Wealth, Income and Inequality: Part I

Affluence is mostly a matter of age and education in the US. The median net worth (2011) of young adults (less than 35 years) is $6,676; for 65 to 69 year-olds, it’s $194,226; for 75 and older: $155,714. Basically, people start accumulating wealth in their late 30s and then slowly deplete it after retirement.