"He Claimed", "She Touted": How the Media Uses Insinuation to Manipulate Hearts and Minds

Per dictionary.com, to insinuate is to “to suggest or hint slyly” or “to instill or infuse subtly or artfully, as into the mind”. To insinuate is to lead one’s target along a winding path – a sinuous path – that takes them to where the insinuator wants them to go. On the surface, all is a succession of neutral facts. But what one make of these facts is nudged in certain directions by choice of words, choice of facts, and how they are put together. Think Iago in Othello.

Universal Basic Income: How to Gauge the Quality of UBI Studies

But what, exactly, is a Universal Basic Income? There is no consensus definition, but here’s a good one provided by a couple economists: UBI is a cash transfer program that 1) provides a sufficiently generous cash benefit to live on, without other earnings; 2) does not phase out or phases out only slowly as earnings rise; and, 3) is available to a large proportion of the population, rather than being targeted to a particular subset, e.g., to single mothers (Hoynes and Rothstein, 2019).

Here's Why Covid-19 Mortality Rate Should be Compared to That of Influenza/Pneumonia, Not Influenza Alone.

Since it’s hard to pin down the actual number of flu cases that end in death, epidemiologists often use population-based death rates instead of case-based death rates. And they combine the death rates for influenza and pneumonia. Using that metric, the US death rate for Influenza/Pneumonia in 2018 (last year available) was about 15.3 per 100,000 people As of today, May 8, 2020, the US population-based death rate for Covid-19 US is around 24 per 100,000.

Red States, Blue States, and Covid-19 Death Rates: Understanding the Partisan Divide

The virus leaves death and devastation in its wake, but so does the lockdown. Downplaying the effects of shutting down schools and the economy is just as callous as downplaying the suffering of the infected. It makes sense that Republican governors are moving more quickly to open their economies, given their per capita Covid-19 mortality rate is so much lower than the mortality rate of states with Democrat governors. Compassionate public policy is always a balancing act.

When Helping the Bees Hurts the Birds and What To Do about It: The Case of Insecticide Bans

The insecticides I have in mind are neonicotinoids, which have devastated bee populations throughout the world. Seeds treated with neonicotinoids are also toxic to birds (some birds more than others). A few years ago, the European Union banned various neonicotinoids from all agricultural fields because of the harm they caused bees and birds. Follow-up studies are now trickling in from Europe and the results have been quite illuminating. Here are some findings…

A Reason for Hope: What Summer Weather Does to Respiratory Viral Infections

As these intrepid but infected souls recover and acquire antibodies, they will cease being vectors of contagion and thus play their part in the march to herd immunity. While such incomplete herd immunity will not stop a return of Covid-19 later in the year, it may slow its spread when the weather cools. And slowing the spread will continue to save lives as we wait for a vaccine to provide full herd immunity.

Would Slowing the Spread of COVID-19 with Partial Herd Immunity Save Lives?

It’s a weather effect. Specifically, cold, dry winter air increases both the transmission and severity of viral respiratory infections by:

  • Affecting the properties of the virus surface proteins and membrane

  • Making it easier for airborne viral particles to travel

  • Reducing the functionality of teeny hair-like structures called cilia from expelling viral particles from the body’s airways.

  • Impairing cell repair in the lungs exposed to viral infections.

  • Reducing immune system efficiency.

Blue States, Red States and When It Makes Sense to Ease the Lockdown

As the map shows, most Republican-governed states - 73% of them - have low COVID-19 death rates. Specifically, less than 50 deaths per million population. Just 36% of Democrat-governed states have such low mortality rates. Now consider the havoc and suffering wrought by shelter-in place lockdowns….

COVID-19 Mortality Rate Trends over the Past Month: Cross-Country Comparison (Chart)

The obvious question here is whether there is a connection between each country’s government response and its mortality rate.. The government response I’m most interested in regards the relationship between stay-at-home lockdowns and mortality rates (acknowledging that correlation is not causation). Here are the countries* that had full, countrywide, stay-at-home lockdowns: …

Ways to Make Social Connections and Not Be So Lonely

… whenever we feel we’re contributing to another’s well-being or happiness, we feel less lonely. Like if we’re with a friend and that friend is obviously enjoying our company. Or when we help a co-worker solve a vexing problem. In these situations, the pleasures of getting and giving are intermingled, e.g., being liked, appreciated, admired, or respected plus the satisfaction of benefiting someone else.

Here's How Fast the Economy Recovered after the 1957-58 Pandemic, Despite a US Death Toll of 116,000

“In February 1957, a new influenza A (H2N2) virus emerged in East Asia, triggering a pandemic (“Asian Flu”). This H2N2 virus was comprised of three different genes from an H2N2 virus that originated from an avian influenza…It was first reported in Singapore in February 1957, Hong Kong in April 1957, and in coastal cities in the United States in summer 1957. The estimated number of deaths was 1.1 million worldwide and 116,000 in the United States.” - 1957-1958 Pandemic (H2N2 virus)/CDC

Why Some Populous States have Such Low COVID-19 Mortality Rates (and I'm not talking about California)

The general consensus seems to be that California’s relatively low death rate is at least partly due to the San Francisco Bay Area’s March 12th “shelter-in-place” order, which may have prevented the explosion of contagion that has afflicted New Yorkers. Seems reasonable and yet… the governors of Texas and Florida did not order statewide lockdowns until April. And Texas has a lower COVID-19 death rate than California’s and Florida’s rate is not much higher.

Comparing Mortality Risks of Unemployment versus the Coronavirus Pandemic

Unemployment kills. A 10% increase in unemployment for workers age 25-64 translates to 32,500 “extra” deaths a year in the US. This based on “Losing life and livelihood: a systematic review and meta-analysis of unemployment and all-cause mortality”, an analysis of 42 studies covering more than 20 million persons.