Trends in Biodiversity and Human Population Growth

Granted, the Living Planet Index doesn’t cover most species but it’s a pretty good proxy for the health of the land-based biosphere. And from this chart, it’s clear that the relation between regional population growth and biodiversity is complicated.

Mining for Renewables and Biodiversity

A recent study identified 101,583 square kilometers (km2) of mining operations across the globe, based on the latest satellite imagery (Maus, Giljum,  da Silva et al, 2022). This figure includes open cuts, tailings dams, waste rock dumps, water ponds, processing plants, and other ground features related to the mining activities. To put that number in perspective, agricultural land covers over 47 million km2 worldwide.  However, the amount of land devoted to mining increases every year - thanks in large part to the growing market for renewal energy and electric vehicles.

From Agriculture to Wild Habitat

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, agricultural land includes croplands, pastures, orchards, vineyards, and flowering shrubs but excludes trees grown for wood or timber. Almost 33% of the earth’s total land area is used for agriculture. The rest goes to forest/shrub ( 37%), glaciers (10%) barren land such as deserts (19%) and a minuscule 1% for human urban areas and built-up land…Expanding wild habitat is mostly about taking from agriculture and giving to forests and shrub lands.

The Psychology of Social Justice: Perceived Control, Hope, and Inequality

High perceived control tends to soften the blows of outrageous fortune by activating action plans to make things better.  Low perceived control sharpens the sting of adversity because it makes us feel helpless and hopeless. Individuals who chronically lack a sense of control tend to become angry and disengaged: there's nothing I can do to make a difference, so why bother?

Revisiting The Psychology of Social Justice: Relative Deprivation

In prepping for a previous post on social justice, I came across a great meta-analysis on the research and theory of "relative deprivation", which the authors define as "the judgment that one is worse off compared to some standard accompanied by feelings of anger and resentment" (Smith, Pettigrew et al, 2011, p 203).  According to this meta-analysis, the experience of relative deprivation can be applied to the self or ingroup and requires…

The Psychology of Grievance and Resistance to Self-Correction

Grievance involves feelings of deprivation, shame, humiliation, impotent anger, and being the victim of injustice. Grievance demands payback.  Deep grievance demands big payback and may not be satisfied until the payback is proportionate to the harm done. Which may take forever.

The Politics of Public Performance and Resistance to Self-Correction

Politicians want to be leaders and so need followers. To make someone a follower, you need to convince them you have the Right Stuff, which includes supreme self-confidence that you have the Answer. If you’re elected, you have to deliver. If you don’t deliver, then you have to counsel patience or make excuses (ideally, blaming the Other Side). You can’t say you were wrong and then suggest a fix - at least, not if you want to be reelected.

Ideological Commitment and Resistance to Self-Correction

Commitment to an ideology imbues it with a “sacred value”, or “roughly, a value that is held particularly fervidly and that one is incredibly reluctant to relinquish” (Clark and Winegard, 2020). The ideologically committed are therefore akin to True Believers; they’re all in.

Why is It So Hard to Self-Correct? Part I: When Persistence is not a Virtue

Note the governments of Britain, Finland, France, Norway and Sweden had previously supported gender-affirming care for children. But they reconsidered in light of new evidence that such care could sometimes be harmful. American activists know about this evidence as well but many have chosen to dig in, not yielding an inch. However, this post is not about the merits of gender-affirming care for children. It’s about why people and policymakers persist in old ways of thinking and doing despite evidence that the old ways are suboptimal or worse.

Violent Crime and Incarceration Rates in the US: Trends and Patterns (Three Charts, One Table, and a Few Comments)

What seems crazy about these numbers is that violent crime in America skyrocketed between 1960 and 1990, but incarceration rates barely budged until the 1980s. Of course, there’s always a time lag between committing a crime and starting a prison sentence, so any relationship between crime rates and incarceration rates would also be subject to a time lag. But why would it take 20 years for the incarceration rate to take off?

Patriotism and Hard Work: Can You Spot the Trend?

Last week there was a lot of brouhaha about a Wall Street Journal (WSJ) poll showing that Americans were less enthused about some pretty core principles and values, such as patriotism and hard work. Problem is, America’s apparent moral decline was based on only two polls, one in 1998 and one in 2023. That’s not enough data to declare a trend.

So I did some digging. Sure enough, there was a 1976-77 poll that asked the same questions - its results were actually provided on a WSJ document that summarized responses to the 1998 poll. Considering the 1976-77 poll results along with those for 1998 and 2023, can you spot the trend in, say, patriotism? …

Behind the Headlines: Has America Lost Its Moral Compass?

Those alarmed at these poll results had three main concerns. First, endorsement of key values was less whole-hearted than they had been in the 1998 poll. Specifically, there were fewer “Very Important” responses to values such as hard work and community involvement, even though most respondents still considered these values at least somewhat important (94% and 80% in the case of hard work and community involvement). Second was the overall decline in valuing religion, having children, and patriotism, with 40%, 33%, and 27% of respondents considering these values as “not that important” or “not important at all” in the 2023 poll. And third, a whopping 90% of the 2023 respondents considered money an important value. What’s up with that?

What Does It Mean to "Follow the Science?"

“If we want to rebuild a shared public trust in expertise, we will need a more realistic and humane language to talk about scientific expertise and its place in our political life—an account of expertise that is worthy of the public’s trust. Such an account would affirm scientific expertise as a praiseworthy human achievement, indispensable to understanding the world around us and valuable for making political decisions. But it would also recognize the role of uncertainty and judgment in science, and thus the possibility of error and disagreement, including value disagreements, when using science for public policy. Reestablishing an appropriate role for science in our politics, in other words, requires restoring the central role of politics itself in making policy decisions.” - Unmasking Scientific Expertise, by M. Anthony Mills/Issues in Science and Technology

Circling an Idea, Trying to Get Closer: The Glue That Holds America Together

This from a Tennessee State University document titled Defining Citizenship and Civic Engagement:

“Attempting to define civic responsibility can be a daunting task because of frequently overlapping constructs, values, and interpretations. Indeed, the very mention of the term civic responsibility evokes notions of what it means to live in a democracy, in addition to the complementary ideas of citizenship, social responsibility, civic engagement, and community involvement. [But here goes…] Civic responsibility means active participation in the public life of a community in an informed, committed, and constructive manner, with a focus on the common good.”

Sentencing Reform and Recidivism Rates, Part III: Who's at Greatest Risk of Reoffending?

Many states, including North Carolina, require offenders to undergo a Risk and Need Assessment (RNA), which helps criminal justice officials target interventions to reduce recidivism. For example, prisons use RNAs to identify programs inmates should attend while incarcerated. Probation and parole agencies use them to develop an offender’s supervision plan and inform responses to violations. RNAs, supplemented by criminal records, are also used to classify an offender’s level of risk and need, from Minimal to Extreme. These classifications turn out to be rather good predictors of recidivism…

Sentencing Reform and Recidivism Rates, Part II: Probation, Again

Mmmm…82% of the probationers in 2019 had prior arrests and 59% had been placed on probation before. Around a third were previously incarcerated felons. Of probationers with prior arrests, over half had been arrested three or more times. In other words, a lot of repeat offenders are being put on probation in North Carolina - somewhat ironic given the 1994 sentencing reform was supposed to divert more repeat offenders to prison. Don’t get me wrong, though. I’m not against probation for all repeat offenders…

Bridge the Partisan Divide by Activating Your Moral Tradeoff System

Intuitions about right and wrong clash in moral dilemmas. These dilemmas activate a moral trade-off system designed for resolving conflicts among moral values.  Examples of moral values include fairness, reciprocity, responsibility, care, entitlement, merit, loyalty, and honesty. When asked to resolve moral dilemmas, many people made compromise judgments, which strike a balance between conflicting moral values by partially satisfying at least some of them. The moral tradeoff system delivers that solution as an intuitive moral judgment. (paraphrasing Guzman et al, 2022)