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The Environment

As China, India and the US Go, So Goes the World: The Outlook on CO2 Emissions

The US drop in CO2 emissions is almost entirely due to trends in electric power, mostly improvements in energy efficiency and the growth of renewable energy. Emissions in the transportation, industrial, residential and commercial sectors are either flat or going up - and the price of oil appears to make little difference in projections for the next 30 years. Makes me doubt the efficacy of a carbon tax in changing people’s behavior, unless of course it’s a huge carbon tax. But a huge carbon tax is likely to backfire.

How to Shrink Agriculture to Expand Wild Habitat, Part II: Cattle Management

The earth’s biosphere is in the middle of a mass extinction event, thanks mostly to the loss of wild habitat to agriculture. We need to shrink the amount of land used for agriculture to expand wild habitat and protect endangered species. Since livestock farming destroys more habitat than other types of agriculture and cattle are the most destructive of livestock animals, it would make sense to go after cattle ranchers and their enablers, aka those who eat beef.

How to Shrink Agriculture to Expand Wild Habitat, Part I: The Lay of the Land

The growing demand for beef is coming mostly from Asia and Africa and no matter how impassioned the pleas from environmentalists and vegans, the people in those regions aren’t going to change their food preferences any time soon - not when memories and stories of widespread hunger still linger in their collective minds.

But demand is only half the equation….

Rethinking Density, Part Two: The Possibility of Climate-Friendly Suburbs

The studies and density advocates are assuming that driving and residential energy use will continue to rely on energy sources that emit greenhouse gases. But what about remote work, online shopping, electric vehicles, renewables, smart nuclear, and carbon-capture? Aren’t these (and other) technological developments going to change the equation in the not-so-distant future? As within a decade or so?

Rethinking Density, Part One: Where Most Americans Want to Live

Actually, a good number of Americans still want to live in cities. But that doesn’t mean they want to live in high-density urban areas. After all, most American cities have car-friendly residential neighborhoods, which aren’t all that different from suburbs.

Clear Evidence That Economic Growth Does Not Preclude Steep Decline in GHG Emissions

Despite California large and growing economy, the state’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been declining steadily since 2007 - thanks in large part to the passage of Assembly Bill 32 (AB 32), otherwise known as the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006. AB32 required the state to adopt a plan to limit GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. It achieved that goal four years early. These four charts pretty much tell the tale…

Food for Thought, Part I: Using Livestock to Protect Habitat and Reduce Emissions

“Grasslands evolved with bison, pronghorn and other animals whose hooves and grazing open new areas for plants to grow. The above-ground stems of prairie grasses and flowers rebound quickly after they’ve been eaten, much as pruning backyard trees or shrubs creates healthier plants. When managed carefully, domestic animals such as cattle or sheep can have the same positive impact on grassland ecosystems.” - Pulse of the Heartland by Brianna Randall/National Wildlife Magazine, October-November 2021

When Bold Action Now Undermines Better Action Later

President Biden's national “clean energy standard” aims to zero out greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the power sector by 2035. This would be mostly achieved through through a mix of renewable energy, carbon capture, and nuclear power. Unfortunately, we don’t yet have the technological know-how to make this happen.

How to Read Science News, Part IV: The Cost of Climate Change (Tentative Conclusion)

So, what does one do with this assertion of fact? Some options: 1) investigate the claim and remain noncommittal about its truth-value until questions are answered to your satisfaction (if they ever are); 2) register the claim as a possible fact but remain noncommittal about its truth-value. Reject further investigation as too time consuming: 3) accept the claim as true or true-enough, and leave it at that: and, 4) accept the claim as plausible, which is good enough to present it as established fact in the service of some higher purpose… Reject further investigation as quibbling about details and overlooking the bigger picture.

How to Read Science News, Part II: The Cost of Climate Change (Further Explorations)

Are the costs of weather-related damage going up because the weather in the US has gotten worse? For example:

  • Are hurricanes more powerful or frequent?

  • Are heatwaves longer or more intense?

  • Are droughts getting longer or more frequent?

  • Are high precipitation events wetter or more frequent?

The Our World in Data website has tons of data pertinent to these questions, summarized in a series of charts. First, trends in hurricane activity…

How to Read Science News, Part I: The Cost of Climate Change (Initial Exploration)

Both articles seemed to suggest that, thanks to climate change, weather-related damage is on the rise in the US and the increased cost of this damage is due mostly to changes in the weather and not to factors unrelated to the weather, such as trends in population density or the value of assets in climate-vulnerable areas. Is this actually the case?

A Brief Summary of Possible Climate Futures

As part of its discussion of possible climate futures, the 2021 report assesses the climate response to five illustrative scenarios called shared socio-economic pathways, or SSPs. The SSPs differ in their estimated trajectories of emissions and consequent global warming…

The Bold Centrist: How to Help the USDA Do More to Protect the Environment, Increase Biodiversity, and Combat Climate Change

This time around I’m going to address what more the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) can do to protect the environment, increase biodiversity, and combat climate change. The USDA already has several programs that help agricultural producers and foresters adopt and maintain conservation systems that protect water and air quality, reduce soil erosion, protect and enhance wildlife habitat, forests and wetlands, conserve water, and sequester carbon. Here are some of them…

When Non-Native Species Benefit Biological Communities and Counter the Harmful Effects of a Changing Climate

Non-native species are typically described as “invasive” species, clearly not a term of endearment. However, many biologists and conservationists are having a change of heart regarding these much-maligned “aliens” (another common descriptor): they’re not all bad - and some may even help native species survive and thrive, especially in biological communities under stress from habitat loss and a changing climate. A zero-tolerance approach to non-native species makes no sense when their effects are often neutral or positive.