The Ripple Effects of a $15 Federal Minimum Wage for Childcare Workers

Some employers are able to absorb minimum wage increases by increasing labor productivity - producing more output per worker. However, this isn’t possible in the childcare business, due to mandated staff-child ratios, which vary somewhat across states. So with large minimum wage increases, employers have little choice but to pass on the extra cost to the consumer, typically parents or government agencies. According to one estimate, a $15 minimum wage for childcare workers would increase US childcare costs by an average of 21 percent —an extra $310 per month for two children. But in some states the increase would be much higher, over $500 a month for two children.

How to Reform The US Minimum Wage

Of course the minimum wage should be increased, but there is no justification for a one-size fits all approach. It makes more sense to yoke a state’s minimum wage to its median wage, at least for the initial reset, and then adjust annually for inflation. The minimum wage in developed countries is often between half and two-thirds of the median wage. For instance, minimum wage to median wage is 54% in Australia, 55% in the United Kingdom, and 63% in South Korea. For the US, I’m thinking a minimum wage of around 60% of each state’s median wage would be reasonable, rounded up to nearest dollar and with a few constraints, such as the new state minimum wage would not be less than the current one. Here’s what such a system might look like…

An Alternative to Biden's Plan to Eliminate Community College Tuition and Increase Pell Grants

President Biden recently unveiled his plan to spend $109 billion over 10 years to make community college tuition-free. Biden also wants to increase the maximum Pell grant to $8,295 for the 2021-22 school year. The President’s proposals would certainly ease the financial strains of attending public community colleges, especially for low-income students who are most likely to qualify for the maximum Pell grants.

Behind the Research: Letting Suspects Go as a Crime-Fighting Tactic

Diversion is an intervention in the criminal justice system that provides offenders with a chance to avoid conviction and a criminal record by undergoing a period of community supervision. The study found that diversion for first-time felony offenders cut reoffending rates in half and increased employment rates by nearly 50% over 10 years.

Opinion Polls, Part I: Public Support for Biden's Infrastructure Plan

As for Biden’s infrastructure plan, 59% of those surveyed in the NBC poll thought it was a good idea, 21% disagreed, and 19% had no opinion. Which got me thinking: what is it about the infrastructure plan that these people think is a good idea (or not)? Biden’s infrastructure plan is immense and involves dozens of large-scale projects, including

Behind the Headline: "School board surprised by recommendation to expand police presence in Berkeley high schools"

The committee backed up their recommendations with results from a survey they had conducted of students and staff. The majority of people surveyed supported the position of School Resource Officer (SRO) , including 72% of Black students, 73% of Latino students, 77% of Asian students, and 62% of white students. White staff members were the most critical of the SRO role, with 54% opposing the position. No teachers and fewer than 6% of students found the SRO “hostile or mistrustful of kids.”

Cross-Country Comparisons: Covid-19 Deaths versus Excess Deaths

Why do so many Covid deaths go unreported? One reason is that most people die at home in developing countries and out-of-hospital deaths are rarely medically certified. For example, only around a fifth of all deaths are medically certified in India. Even in countries with substantial hospital data, cause-of-death is often misclassified, often a result of insufficient physician training. Sometimes, though, misclassification is deliberate, as in some hospitals in India, where officials have directed doctors to list cause-of-death as “sickness” and not Covid, possibly to avoid a panic. And then there’s Russia…

When Non-Native Species Benefit Biological Communities and Counter the Harmful Effects of a Changing Climate

Non-native species are typically described as “invasive” species, clearly not a term of endearment. However, many biologists and conservationists are having a change of heart regarding these much-maligned “aliens” (another common descriptor): they’re not all bad - and some may even help native species survive and thrive, especially in biological communities under stress from habitat loss and a changing climate. A zero-tolerance approach to non-native species makes no sense when their effects are often neutral or positive.

The Bold Centrist: How Much Would It Cost to Decarbonize the US Economy by 2050?

Of course these five pathways don’t exhaust all possibilities. Personally I’d prefer something with more nuclear, less biomass, and lots of solar/wind - which doesn’t quite fit any of the distinct options provided by the Princeton group. But the study’s aim was more practical than encyclopedic, basically to help decision-makers implement well-informed and thoughtful climate change policies. Part of that service was to provide a strict accounting of the likely costs and savings generated by each decarbonization pathway.

Loosen those chains of certainty! (How to Resist the Lure of Ideology)

Ideologies are typically inspired by utopian visions entailing a radical overhaul of the existing order - what I call the Big Solution. Problems like intrusive government, poverty, and environmental harm may drive initial attraction to a Big Solution, but in time the relationship between problem and solution changes. That is, where once the Big Solution was seen as a means to fixing problems, it eventually becomes an end in itself - one that requires Big Problems to justify. That’s because Big Solutions typically involve painful sacrifice (the darkness before the dawn). And that pain had better be worth it!

The Bold Centrist: A Responsible Budget for Fixing This Country

The US federal debt exploded last year. Between a battered economy and trillions in stimulus spending, it will take years to shrink the debt back to a manageable size. In the meantime, the Bold Centrist still wants to fix this country, focusing on six problem areas: healthcare, infrastructure, poverty, social mobility, housing, and threats to the biosphere. The challenge is how to fund the repair job without adding to the public debt or zapping economic growth.

The Beauty of an Adult Student Basic Income

That’s the problem on the micro-level: unhappy and struggling individuals and families. On the macro-level, we have a mismatch between worker skills and employer needs, which has led to chronic labor shortages - especially in the better-paying fields… These shortages not only hurt the company’s bottom line, they undermine labor productivity and economic growth. And the problem’s only going to get worse in the decades to come unless this country comes up with better ways to help people update their skills as needed to meet ever-changing employer demand.

Lifelong learning on a mass scale is in order.

The Bold Centrist: Here's How the US could fund an Adult Student Basic Income on Less than $2 a Day per Capita in New Taxes

The ASBI would mostly pay for itself through reduced spending on other government programs…An ASBI would not impact eligibility for some non-cash benefits such as housing and Medicaid, as well as any aid meant for children. However, ASBI recipients would have to pay somewhat more for their Medicaid premiums…. So how did I arrive at a cost of $2 a day in new taxes for the ASBI? Easy: tax increase of $216 billion divided by 328.3 million US residents = $658 = less than $2 a day/per Capita.

What Can We Learn from Stockton’s Basic-Income Demonstration Project?

The Stockton Economic Empowerment Demonstration, or SEED, was founded in early 2019 by the then-mayor of Stockton, a city of about 292,000 in California. SEED is midway through an experimental project to demonstrate the advantages of a guaranteed basic income. The project includes a “treatment” group of 125 individuals who will receive a guaranteed monthly stipend of $500 for two years, as well as a control group that does not receive the stipend. Of the 125 in the treatment group, 100 comprise the core research sample and 25 serve as a “politically purposive, or storytelling cohort, or who publicly spoke about their experience with SEED.” (Preliminary Analysis: SEED's First Year, March 2021).

Asian Victims of Violence and Hate Crimes: Numbers and Trends in Three Charts

The first chart is based on annual surveys of violent crime victims, covering the period of 2008-2019 and collected by the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) Unfortunately, the BJS did not provide separate data for Asian victims, who are included in the ‘Other’ category... The next chart is hate crime data from thousands of law enforcement agencies, covering the period of 2015-2019 and compiled by the FBI... The last chart summarizes 2015-2019 survey data on the rate of violent victimization by race or ethnicity. This time the BJS did provide specific information on the victimization of Asians.

The Difference between a Bold Centrist and a Conservative

Conservatives have accepted the right to a public education and emergency medical care. But they don’t seem to have registered the implications of these modern rights. They still seem to think governments must be timid, as if it were impossible to mix fiscal discipline with ambitious policy goals or protect individual liberty while expanding the scope of government. Well, it is possible. Hard but possible.