The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services estimates that up to 25% of health care spending in the United States pays for low-value services, defined as unnecessary or ineffective procedures, tests, scans, and medications. A recent study estimates that in 2022, 71 per 100 Medicare beneficiaries received low-value services. In 2023, Medicare and Medicaid spending reached $1.9 trillion. Reduce that by 10%…
10. Raise Payroll Tax Rate by 1%: $1510B in savings. Social Security is mostly financed by a 12.4 percent payroll tax, split equally between employees and employers. This option would increase that rate by one percentage point to 13.4 percent, phased in over ten years. This increase would only apply to income under the current taxable maximum of $176,100.
The US national debt (which excludes what the government owes itself) is expected to surpass the all-time record of 106% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2029. To put that in perspective, the average over the last 50 years was about 49% of GDP…My goal in this series is to figure out how to reduce the debt to a manageable level. In this quest, I’ll follow the guidance of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), which says that the federal government will need identify around $8.1 trillion in tax increases and budget cuts* to stabilize debt at 100% of the economy by 2035. So that’s what I’m going for.
Information: “Any communication or representation of knowledge such as facts, data or opinions in any medium or form”. National Institute of Standards and Technology
More to the point of this post, what is the current scientific consensus on climate change? I’m not going to depend on the version provided by Elbeyi, Jensen et al, as they seem rather biased. However, NASA has compiled over a dozen consensus statements, which are remarkably similar to each other. Here are a few of them…
“It’s when uncertainty collides with urgency that the authorities enter the fray, convene commissions, and issue findings. Those who accept the sanctioned conclusions gain official backing. Those who don’t are ruled out of bounds. No longer recognized as colleagues with legitimate hypotheses, they risk being treated as crackpots, deniers, and conspiracy theorists.” - Doctor’s Orders: It used to be progressives who distrusted the experts. What happened? By Daniel Immerwahr/The New Yorker. May 26, 2025
Human behavior is the outcome of multicausal pathways. For example, in the theory of planned behavior, beliefs, intentions and perceived behavioral control are all parts of a causal chain that lead to a behavior, whether it’s cramming for an exam or stealing a car. The outcomes of behavior provide information relevant to beliefs, intentions and perceived behavioral control and so are part of the causal chain. Intervening at any point in the chain may change the behavior.
A root cause is not fixed: its effects are not fixed. What gets the ball rolling may not keep it going. What keeps it going may change. What keeps the ball rolling may lose potency with repetition, or be worn down by contrary forces. In other words, causal pathways are subject to decay.
An open science collaboration of researchers conducted replications of 100 studies published in three top psychology journals. Of the original studies, 97% had significant results. Of the replications, just 36% had significant results. Per the study authors, “collectively these results offer a clear conclusion: A large portion of replications produced weaker evidence for the original findings” (Collaboration, O.S., 2015). Replication studies have also been done in economics, neuroscience, evolutionary biology, ecology, and organic chemistry. All arrived at the same clear conclusion.
In their recent article, Best- and Worst-Run Cities in America, WalletHub compared the operating efficiency of 148 of the largest U.S. cities to determine “how well city officials manage and spend public funds by comparing the quality of the services residents receive against the city’s total budget”. Among WalletHub’s 36 metrics of comparison were per Capita Budget and Financial Stability. I had a hunch that, on average, cities with Republican mayors would have smaller per capita budgets and greater financial stability than cities run by non-Republicans (mainly Democrats). So I checked out if my hunch had any merit.
“Property crime fell from the early-1990s onwards because of security improvements, particularly to vehicles and households. As fewer young people became involved in property crime, fewer progressed to violence (which is fortunately rarer), and fewer crimes were committed in which violence also occurs, such as robbery and aggravated burglary.” - Professor Graham Farrell, School of Law/University of Leeds. (Letter to The Economist, June 7, 2025 issue)
I recently read some articles claiming Gen Z -Americans born between the late 1990s and the early 2010s - have become “unprecedentedly rich”, an assessment purportedly based on some number-crunching by the Federal Reserve. Turns out that’s not what the Fed found. To quote:
Why does this matter? Because workers support the young, elderly, and other nonworkers, aka “dependents”. A larger working-age population supports economic growth, thereby generating additional tax revenue to fund pensions, healthcare, public education and other programs that benefit the young, old, disabled, etc. Too few workers relative to dependents, the economy tanks, tax revenues plummet, and the dependents go without – majorly. And that’s where we are headed.
Several developed countries have lowered capital gains taxes over the last couple decades, mainly to stimulate economic growth, investment, and global competitiveness, as well as to discourage investors from holding on to their assets simply to avoid taxes. However, some argue that lower capital gains taxes mainly benefit the rich and have little impact on economic growth or investment. The verdict is out on that score.
Before all these intervening factors muddled the causal picture, many (especially partisans) offered confident opinions on the impact of TCJA. For instance…
Well, how the hell can governments do more to protect the environment if their primary funder - tax payers - refuse to pay for the service? Tread lightly and lay off guilt trips to get people to sacrifice their dreams for the greater good of the planet.
A single cow requires 1-2 acres a year (3-5 acres if grass-fed). One acre of single family homes on 5,000 sq ft lots could house around 25 people (assuming 3 residents per house, on average).
Environmentalists push for high-density housing because it’s a way to lower emissions and conserve habitat. The basic idea is more people on less land, the better for the biosphere. Single family homes usually don’t belong in this picture. But they can.
But large yards are no longer de rigueur in this country. As documented in the first post in this series, a recent survey of over 7,000 Americans ages 18 to 54 found that over 90% of renters with plans for more children wanted to own homes - but the survey did not find a preference for homes with bigger yards over smaller yards. Across every demographic subgroup, safety/low crime was by far the single most important neighborhood trait, especially for families with children or with plans to have more. Good schools ranked second for people with children, followed by walkability. Note that neighborhoods with large lots tend to be less walkable.